>> HELLO, EVERYONE, WELCOME TO AMANPOUR AND COMPANY.

HERE IS WHAT COMING UP.

MORE SHOTS FIRED IN TRUMP'S GLOBAL TRADE WERE AS CANADA AND EUROPE HIT BACK AT U.S. TARIFFS, WHILE PUTIN HAS RESPONDED TO THE UKRAINE U.S.

CEASE-FIRE PROPOSAL.

I SPEAK TO DONALD TRUMP'S FORMER EU AMBASSADOR.

THEN, COLOMBIA'S AMBASSADOR IT REMAINS IN I.C.E.

CUSTODY IN NEW YORK.

AND IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER DISMISSES WHITE HOUSE OVERTURES AND CONDEMNS DEMANDS FROM QUOTE BULLYING GOVERNMENTS.

NEW YORK TIMES CORRESPONDENT RINGS US THE DETAILS.

ALSO, WALTER ISAACSON TALKS TO CANADIAN ECONOMIST ERIC BUSSELL ABOUT TENSIONS IN THE U.S. CANADA RELATIONSHIP.

>> AMANPOUR AND COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT , JIM ATWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WE ARE, THE SYLVIA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI- SEMITISM.

THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LAILA AND MISSY STRAUSS.

MARK J LESHER.

SETON J MELVIN.

THE PETER G PETERSON AND JOAN COONEY FUND.

CHARLES ROSENBLUM.

COUP AND PARTITION U.N..

COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

JEFFREY KATZ AND BETH ROGERS.

AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FOR VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN NEW YORK .

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE UKRAINIAN UNITED STATES AGREED TO A TEMPORARY CEASE-FIRE PROPOSAL, PUTIN HAS REACTED A JOINT CONFERENCE IN MOSCOW WITH HIS NEIGHBOR AND PARTNER IN THIS INVASION, THE PRESIDENT OF BELARUS.

QUOTE, I AM FOR THE CEASE-FIRE, SAYS PUTIN, BUT I HAVE RESERVATIONS.

AND THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT CAME UP WITH A LONG LIST OF THEM, AS EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS THAT WE HAVE TO DISCUSS, HE SAID, BUT WE ALSO THANKED PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS OTHER PARTNERS, CHINA, SOUTH AFRICA, AND OTHERS FOR TRYING TO INTO THIS.

IT IS THE LATEST TWIST IN THIS HOT WAR AT A MOMENT WHERE THE TRADE WAR IS HEATING UP.

CANADIAN FOREIGN MINISTER MINCED NO WORDS.

IF THE UNITED STATES CAN DO THIS TO HIS CLOSEST FRIEND, THEN NOBODY IS SAFE SHE SAID.

JUST HOURS AFTER DONALD TRUMP'S 25% TARIFFS ON ALUMINUM AND STEEL WENT INTO EFFECT.

NOW CANADA AND THE EU EACH FIRED BACK WITH RETALIATORY STRIKES ON U.S. IMPORTS, INCLUDING BOATS, BOURBON, AND MOTORBIKES.

NOW DONALD TRUMP THREATENS ANOTHER 200% TARIFF ON WINE AND CHAMPAGNE FROM FRANCE AND OTHER ALCOHOL FROM THE EU, CALLING EUROPE'S RETALIATORY MEASURES HOSTILE, ABUSIVE, AND NASTY.

AND SO IT GOES.

THE FRENCH TRADE MINISTER NOW SAYS THAT, QUOTE, TRUMP IS ESCALATING THE TRADE WAR THAT HE HAS CHOSEN TO START AMMA AND THEY WON'T HIM A QUOTE, GIVEN HIS RIGHTS.

THEY WILL ALWAYS PROTECT THEIR INDUSTRIES.

IN THE WHITE HOUSE YESTERDAY, TRUMP GAVE THE WORLD A SENSE OF WHERE THIS IS ALL HEADED.

>> WE ARE GOING TO BE DOING RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, SO WHATEVER THEY CHARGE US, WE ARE CHARGING THEM.

NO ONE CAN COMPLAIN ABOUT THAT.

WHATEVER IT IS, IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT IT IS.

IF THEY CHARGE US, IF THEY CHARGE US 25 OR 20%, 10%, 2%, OR 200%.

THEN THAT IS WHAT WE ARE CHARGING THEM.

SO I DON'T KNOW WHY PEOPLE GET UPSET ABOUT THAT, BECAUSE THERE'S NOTHING MORE FAIR THAN THAT.

>> BUT WHO STARTED ALL THIS, AND AS TENSIONS WITH ALLIES SPIRAL, OVERTURES TO ADVERSARIES CONTINUE.

HERE WITH AN INSIDE VIEW IS GORDAN SONDLAND.

HE SERVED AS U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO THE EU DURING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FIRST TERM IT.

HE OPPOSED THE PRESIDENT AFTER JANUARY 6th, BUT REVERSED THAT COURSE AND SUPPORTED HIS RE- ELECTION.

GORDAN SONDLAND, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

I DON'T KNOW, MY HEAD IS SPINNING.

MAYBE YOURS IS SPINNING.

BUT IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES I WANT TO GO STRAIGHT FIRST TO THE PUTIN REACTION TO THE CEASE- FIRE.

WHAT YOU MAKE OF IT.

MANY ANALYSTS SAID THAT IS BOUND TO PLAY NICE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP.

HE APPRECIATES, AS HE SAID THERE, TRUMP'S INTERVENTION TO WIN THE WAR.

BUT AGAIN, AS EXPECTED, HE GAVE A WHOLE LIST OF RESERVATIONS.

WHAT YOU THINK THIS IS HEADED?

HOW DO YOU REACT?

>> THE WHOLE LIST OF RESERVATIONS THAT HE GAVE IS REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A FORM OF ROPE A DOPE.

HE WANTS EVERY SECOND TO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO HIT UKRAINE WHILE THESE DISCUSSIONS ARE ONGOING.

AND HE IS GIVING A NOD TO PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THANKING HIM FOR ALL THE COURTESIES.

HE ALSO MENTIONED HIS OTHER ALLIES, INCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA AND OTHERS.

BUT WHILE ALL OF THIS IS GOING ON, HE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO HIT UKRAINE VERY HARD.

I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP'S APPROPRIATE RESPONSE IS IF THE IMMEDIATE CEASE-FIRE THAT STEVE WOULD COST IS GOING TO PROPOSE IN PERSON IN MOSCOW IS REJECTED, OR EVEN IF IT IS NOT REJECTED, BUT IT IS ONE OF THOSE WE WILL TAKE IT UNDER ADVISEMENT AND GET BACK TO YOU, WE SHOULD, WITHOUT PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT OR FANFARE, THE SURGING WEAPONS TO UKRAINE AS WELL AS INTEL, AND LETTING THEM, AGAIN, HIT HARD INSIDE OF RUSSIAN TERRITORY.

SO THAT WHILE VLADIMIR PUTIN IS TAKING HIS SWEET TIME, HE IS SUFFERING SEVERE CASUALTIES IN THE PROCESS.

>> INDICATED THAT, IN FACT, THAT SURGE THAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT, THE FACT THAT IT HAS ALSO BEEN RE-TALKING SINCE THE SAUDI TALKS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND UKRAINE.

THAT IS A NO-NO FOR HIM.

REALLY, CEASE-FIRE?

BUT THEN THE WEAPONS HAVE TO STOP FLOWING UKRAINE.

SO IT PUTS TRUMP IN A LITTLE BIT OF A BIND.

AND LUKASHENKO , WHO IS ALWAYS THERE TO NOD TO PUTIN, SAYS I ADVISED THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT NOT TO FALL FOR DONALD'S TRICKS.

EVERYBODY THINKS THEY ARE BEING PLAYED.

>> THIS IS TWO PEOPLE THAT ARE EACH HOLDING A GUN TO ONE ANOTHER'S HEAD, AND THE ONLY WAY OUT OF THIS IS THEY BOTH SLOWLY AT THE SAME TIME AND NEED TO LOWER THE GUNS AND PUT THEM ON THE TABLE.

BUT THE LAST THING EITHER OF THEM WANTS TO DO IS A ROUGHLY PUT THE GUN DOWN WHILE THE OTHER ONE IS STILL POINTING AT YOUR HEAD.

BECAUSE HE WON'T HAVE A HEAD LEFT WHEN THIS IS ALL THROUGH.

I DON'T THINK THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SHOULD MAKE A BIG FANFARE OUT OF RESURGING WEAPONS, BUT I THINK THEY SHOULD DO SO QUIETLY.

PUTIN WILL GET THE MESSAGE WHEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THE MISSILES START HITTING WELL INSIDE OF RUSSIA.

>> ALL RIGHT.

LET'S MOVE ON TO THE OTHER WAR, BECAUSE IT IS MASSIVE.

THAT IS THE TRADE WAR.

WE HAVE A G7 MEETING IN CANADA.

CANADA IS SORT OF GROUND ZERO FOR THIS NEW TRIM FROM ESCALATION OF THE TRADE WAR.

THEY ARE TALKING IN SELF- DEFENSE TERMS.

THEY ARE REFUSING TO BE BULLIED.

I AM JUST LAYING IT ALL OUT, AS YOU KNOW.

DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHERE THIS IS GOING?

I MEAN, EVERY DAY, JUST ABOUT, WE HAVE TRADE TARIFFS, THEN SUSPENSIONS, THEN RETALIATIONS, THEN RECIPROCAL'S.

WHAT IS GOING ON?

>> WELL, WHAT IS GOING ON, VERY SIMPLY, IS PRESIDENT TRUMP IS TRYING TO DO SOMETHING REALLY, REALLY BIG.

HE IS NOT NOW USING THE TARIFFS AS A NEGOTIATING TACTIC, BECAUSE CLEARLY THAT INITIAL STRATEGY HAS NOT PAID OFF.

EVERYONE HAS MET HIM TARIFF FOR TARIFF.

AND SO ON.

WHAT HE IS TRYING TO DO, VERY SIMPLY PUT, AND IT IS A BIG, BIG MOVE.

AND IT IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF PATIENCE ON THE PART OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, BECAUSE WHEN YOU COME OUT THE OTHER END, AMERICA WILL BE BETTER FOR IT.

AND WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT RE- ESTABLISHING AMERICA AS A MAJOR, MAJOR MANUFACTURING CENTER.

TO THE POINT OF WHERE EVERYTHING IS MADE HERE AGAIN, THE WAY IT USED TO BE 70, 80 YEARS AGO.

>> SO, AMBASSADOR SONDLAND, I ASSUME YOU AGREE WITH ALL THE EXPERTS WHO SAY EVEN IF THAT IS POSSIBLE, THAT'S GOING TO TAKE A LONG, LONG TIME.

AND THAT IT IS VERY RICH FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO BE ASKED TO ACCEPT WHAT EVEN TRUMP IS SAYING, HE CAN'T RULE OUT A RECESSION, PRICES ARE GOING TO GO UP.

THEY'RE GOING TO BE BUMPS IN THE ROAD BUT YOU HAVE TO BE PATIENT.

HANG ON A SECOND.

HE RAN AND WON AN ELECTION PURELY AND SIMPLY ON THE ECONOMY, AND LOWERING PRICES, AND TAKING THE COST OF LIVING, OUT OF EVERYBODY'S POCKET.

NOW, THIS IS RHETORICAL JUJITSU.

HOW ARE PEOPLE MEANT TO REACT TO THIS?

>> WELL, I MIGHT RESPECTFULLY DISAGREE WITH ONE THING YOU SAID.

I DON'T THINK HE EVER PROMISE NO DRAMA, BECAUSE DRAMA AND RESIDENT TRUMP ARE SYNONYMOUS.

>> I DID NOT SAY DRAMA, I SAID COST-OF-LIVING DRAMA.

THEY HAD TO COME DOWN.

HE WAS VOTED ON THAT ISSUE, AND NOW HE IS TRYING TO SAY THAT ACTUALLY IT DOESN'T MATTER IF PRICES GO UP, AND IF RECESSION HAPPENS, AND THERE IS AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.

USING THE MARKET, HE LOVES THE MARKET.

IT'S NOT REACTING FAVORABLY TO HIM.

>> WE ARE ALSO TALKING A MATTER OF DAYS HERE THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED.

THIS HAS NOT BEEN GOING ON FOR A YEAR, OR FOR SIX MONTHS.

AND WHAT I THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN IS, AS THESE TARIFFS GO UP BY THE MINUTE, AT SOME POINT ONE TRADE APARTMENT AFTER ANOTHER, AND THEY ARE NOT OUR OPPONENTS, THEY ARE OUR ALLIES, BUT ONE TRADE APARTMENT AFTER ANOTHER WILL SAY OKAY, LET'S DE- ESCALATE THIS WHILE WE TALKED.

AT WHICH POINT THEY ARE TARIFFS ON US, HAVE TO MATCH US PERCENT FOR PERCENT.

THAT IS WHAT IT TRUMP ONCE.

AT THE END OF THE DAY HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE NO TEARS IN EITHER DIRECTION, AND NO BARRIERS TO ENTRY IN EITHER DIRECTION.

HE MAY, FOR EXAMPLE, THE EU THAT OFFER BACK IN 2019.

HE SAID LET'S DROP ALL OF OUR TARIFFS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, ALL OF OUR NONTARIFF BARRIERS, ALL OF OUR SUBSIDIES, AND LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES.

WE CAN ALWAYS REINSTATE THEM LATER, BUT THE EUROPEANS WOULD NOT TAKE THAT OFFER.

>> CHICKEN AND EGG AND ALL OF THAT, BUT I WANT TO ASK YOU, YOU ARE THE AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.

WEEKEND.

THEY MADE THAT CLEAR EVEN IN INTERVIEWS WITH CRUMP.

YOU JUST SAID THIS COULD BE OVER PRETTY SOON.

THEY SAY THE TROUBLE WITH TRADE WARS IS THAT ONCE THEY BEGIN THEY CAN QUICKLY ESCALATE AND GET OUT OF CONTROL.

ALL THE MORE SO WHEN POLITICIANS ARE NEARING AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN AS CANADA NOW IS, OR WHEN MR. TRUMP BEHAVES AS IF HIS MANHOOD IS IMPLICATED, BECAUSE A FOREIGN NATION WILL TAKE HIS NASTY BORDER TAXES LYING DOWN.

WE SAID FROM THE BEGINNING THAT THIS NORTH AMERICAN TRADE WAR IS THE DUMBEST IN HISTORY, AND WE WERE BEING KIND.

THAT IS THE WALL STREET JOURNAL .

A TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTER OF REPUBLICANS AND THEIR ECONOMIES.

IF THEY ARE SAYING THAT, WHO ARE WE TO ARGUE?

>> I'M A HUGE FAN OF THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, IT'S MY GO TO NEWS SOURCE.

I THINK IT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS TRYING TO DO SOMETHING TRULY TRANSFORMATIONAL IT WILL TRULY TAKE SOME PAIN.

THERE ARE NO FREE LUNCHES HERE.

RIGHT NOW WE ARE HOOK ON CHEAP GOODS AND WE HAVE NO MANUFACTURING.

WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WOULD LIKE IS A WORLD WAR WE MAYBE HAVE TO PAY A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR OUR GOODS, BUT OUR CITIZENS ARE EMPLOYED IN GAINFUL EMPLOYMENT, MAKING GREAT HOURLY WAGES, WORKING IN MANUFACTURING.

WE DON'T HAVE THAT TODAY.

>> YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND MANUFACTURING, AND ALL OF THAT.

TO KNOW WHETHER THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE, TO GO BACK TO A PERIOD OF WHAT YOU ARE SAYING, THE GOLDEN ERA OF 80 YEARS AGO.

I DON'T KNOW WHETHER IT IS POSSIBLE.

BUT WHAT I DO KNOW IS ABOUT POLLS.

THE LATEST IS SAYING THAT 56% OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY DONALD TRUMP IS HANDLING THE ECONOMY, 44% APPROVE.

AND I HEARD FROM A CANADIAN OFFICIAL THAT, FOR INSTANCE, THE FARMERS, ORDINARY CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO BE PAYING A LOT MORE IF, FOR INSTANCE, AS THERE ARE BIG TARIFFS ON THE POTASH.

THE FERTILIZER THAT COMES FROM CANADA.

THAT IS KEY TO FARMING, IT IS CUTE AGRICULTURE, FOOD REDUCTION.

HOW LONG ARE PEOPLE GOING TO STANFORD?

>> IT HAS ONLY BEEN A FEW DAYS, AND THESE THINGS CAN TAKE -- >> IT IS BEEN MORE THAN A MONTH, WITH DUE RESPECT.

A MONTH AND I HAVE AREA >> NUMBER HE IS GONE, IT HYPERDRIVE ON TARIFFS.

THOSE WERE HOURS AGO, FOR EXAMPLE, HE PUT A 200% TARIFF ON EUROPEAN PRODUCT.

LITERALLY HOURS AGO.

>> BEFORE THAT HE PUT LOTS OF PERCENTAGES ON CANADA, EU METALS, AND ALL OF THAT.

>> HE DID, AND THESE THINGS ARE MEASURED NOT IN DAYS AND MONTHS.

WHEN HE HAS THE CHALLENGES HE HAS NOT GIVEN A REPORT OF THE SHAREHOLDERS.

THE SHAREHOLDER IS BEING THE CITIZENS OF THE COUNTRY.

THEY DON'T REALLY UNDERSTAND THE BENEFIT OF WHAT HE IS DOING LONG TERM, AND I THINK HE WOULD BE WELL SERVED WITHOUT SHOWING HIS HAND AS TO HIS ULTIMATE STRATEGY, TO EXPLAIN IN LAYMAN'S TERMS WHY IN THE LONG TERM THIS WILL BENEFIT AMERICAN CITIZENS.

AND THAT HAS NOT BEEN DONE CLEARLY AT.

>> I MEAN, HE TRIED TO DO IT IN THE JOINT ADDRESS TO CONGRESS, BUT THESE POLLS ARE SINCE THEN, WHEN HE SAID THEY HAVE TO BE PATIENT.

BUT I JUST WANTED CALMEST, HISTORY TELLS US, THIS KIND OF STUFF, BY THEN IT WAS PROTECTIONISM IN THE WORLD WAR ERA, LED TO BIG DEPRESSION, LED TO THE RISE OF ALL SORTS OF NASTY POLITICS, LED TO WARS, ARE YOU NOT AFRAID OF THE LESSONS FROM HISTORY?

>> I THINK THIS IS A BIG RISK.

I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS WITHOUT RISK.

I DO THINK THAT WE ARE GOING TO ENDORSE AND PAIN.

BUT I UNDERSTAND THAT HE HAS A MANDATE, AND A TAILWIND CURRENTLY THAT NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER HAD, AND YOU COMBINE THAT WITH HIS PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE AND LEARNING FROM HIS PREVIOUS MISTAKES.

EVERYONE SAID WELL, HE PUT TARIFFS ON, THEN HE TOOK THEM OFF BECAUSE THEY WERE NOT WORKING.

HE DID NOT HAVE THE RUNWAY AND HAD A COUPLE OF IMPEACHMENTS TO DEAL WITH BACK IN, AS WELL.

I THINK THIS TIME HE IS LOOKING THAT HE HAS BASICALLY TWO YEARS TO PROSECUTE THIS, AND IF HE IS SUCCESSFUL, THE U.S. WILL BE BETTER FOR IT.

BUT IT IS NOT WITHOUT RISK, YOU ARE 100% CORRECT.

>> WE WILL CHECK IN WITH YOU AGAIN.

BECAUSE YOU ARE A BUSINESSMAN AND A TRUMP SUPPORTER, AND OBVIOUSLY YOU BELIEVE IN THIS.

AND WE WANT TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF IT AND KEEP LOOKING AT IT.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH, INDEED.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>>> NOW TO THE ADMINISTRATIONS THREAT TO ARREST AND DEPORT A GREEN CARD HOLDER, A RECENT COLUMBIA GRADUATE STUDENT WILL REMAIN IN A I.C.E.

IMMIGRATION CENTER IN LOUISIANA, FOLLOWING A HEARING ON HIS CASE ON WEDNESDAY.

KHALIL'S LAWYERS TOLD THE COURT IN NEW YORK THEY HAD NOT BEEN GIVEN ANY OPPORTUNITY TO CONTACT HIM SINCE HE WAS HOLD OFF FROM HOME DAYS AGO.

ONE COUNSEL ON WEDNESDAY AND ONE TODAY.

KHALIL'S LAWYER IS JOINING ME NOW.

WE SPOKE YESTERDAY TO THE HEAD LEGAL COUNSEL OF THE ACLU ABOUT THIS, AND SHE WAS OBVIOUSLY VERY CLEAR IN THE FACT THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO CHARGES FILED, AND THEREFORE THIS, AT THE MOMENT, HAS NO MERIT.

CAN YOU TELL ME, HAVE YOU SPOKEN TO YOUR CLIENT, HAVE YOU SPOKEN TO KHALIL ?

WHAT IS THE SITUATION WITH HIM.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME, CHRISTIANE .

OUR LEGAL TEAM SPOKE WITH HIM YESTERDAY, FOR ABOUT AN HOUR, TO UNDERSTAND THE PARTICULARS OF WHAT HAPPENED TO HIM.

WHICH IS AT ISSUE IN THE UPCOMING PROCEEDINGS IN THE CASE.

AND CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT HIM, HE APPEARED CALM , MEASURED, THOUGHTFUL AS EVER, AND ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, GIVEN THIS REMARKABLE, SUDDEN, AND SHOCKING TRAUMA, MANAGING WELL.

>> HOW IS HE BEING HELD?

IS IT IN ISOLATION?

IS IT A GROUP SELL?

WHAT ARE THE CONDITIONS?

HIS ABILITY TO SEE SUNLIGHT, DAYLIGHT, TO GO OUT AND EXERCISE?

WHAT ARE HIS ACTUAL CONDITIONS IN RISEN?

>> HIS CONDITIONS ARE SORT OF LIKE A TYPICAL PRIVATE IMMIGRATION DETENTION FACILITY, AND HE DOES HAVE ACCESS TO SOME MEDIA, TO FOOD AND HEALTHCARE AS NEEDED, AND ACCESS TO SUNLIGHT.

HIS CONDITIONS ARE FAR FROM IDEAL, BUT THAT IS NOT FOREMOST ON HIS MIND AT THIS POINT.

THE MOST IMPORTANT AND URGENT ISSUE FOR HIM IS TO BE RELEASED, FIRST, MOST IMMEDIATELY TO BE TRANSFERRED BACK INTO THE JURISDICTION OF THE COURT IN NEW YORK.

AND AT THE SAME TIME, BE RELEASED FROM CUSTODY SO HE CAN BE WITH HIS WIFE, WHO IS EIGHT MONTHS PREGNANT.

>> LET ME READ FOR OUR VIEWERS AND LISTENERS WHAT HIS WIFE HAS PUT OUT LATELY, SINCE THIS HEARING IN NEW YORK.

AS YOU SAID, SHE IS EIGHT MONTHS PREGNANT.

SHE IS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN.

SHE SAID SIX DAYS AGO AN INTENSE AND TARGETED CAMPAIGN BEGAN.

ANTI-PALESTINIAN ORGANIZATIONS WERE SPREADING FALSE CLAIMS ABOUT MY HUSBAND.

THEY WERE MAKING THREATS AGAINST MAHMOUD AND HE WAS SO CONCERNED ABOUT HIS SAFETY THAT HE EMAILED COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY ON MARCH 2nd, BEGGING THE UNIVERSITY FOR LEGAL SOUP ., I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SLEEP, FEARING THAT I.C.E.

OR A DANGEROUS INDIVIDUAL MIGHT COME TO MY HOME.

I URGENTLY NEED LEGAL SUPPORT, AND I URGE YOU TO INTERVENE.

THIS IS WHAT HE SAID IN HIS EMAIL.

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY NEVER RESPONDED TO THAT EMAIL.

HAVE YOU BEEN IN TOUCH WITH COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, DO THEY HAVE ANY MORAL DUTY, ANY DUTY TO THEIR STUDENT?

SHOULD THEY BE HELPING WITH THE LEGAL SITUATION?

WAS THERE ANY COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY REPRESENTATION AT THE HEARING YESTERDAY?

TELL ME WHAT YOU EXPECT FROM THE UNIVERSITY.

>> SO, WE HAVE NOT SPOKEN DIRECTLY TO COLUMBIA.

I THINK FOR OVER A YEAR, COLUMBIA HAS CREATED THE CONDITIONS THAT SUPPORT A LEVEL OF FEAR AND REPRESSION AMONG PALESTINIAN ACTIVISTS.

AND HAS LARGELY BEEN COMPLICIT WITH THE BROADER PROGRAM OF FISHING PALESTINIAN ACTIVISTS UNDER THE FALSE FLAG OF ANTI- SEMITISM.

WHICH HAS PRODUCED INTENSE DOXXING, HARASSMENT, AND NOW THIS.

I.C.E.

AGENTS APPEARING ON COLUMBIA PROPERTY, ENTERING A BUILDING, WHICH VIDEO SHOWS HAPPENED.

RATHER THAN , AS THE GOVERNMENT HAS PUT IN A DECLARATION, HE WAS NOT ARRESTED OUTSIDE HIS APARTMENT BUILDING.

HE WAS ARRESTED INSIDE THE BUILDING.

AND ARRESTED AND TAKEN, SPIRITED AWAY AT NIGHT TO LOUISIANA.

>> AND DO YOU KNOW WHETHER HE WAS TAKEN TOLD THAT HE WAS BEING ARRESTED BECAUSE HIS GREEN CARD WAS REVOKED, AND HAS HIS GREEN CARD BEEN REVOKED >> HE WAS INITIALLY TOLD THAT HIS VISA WAS REVOKED, AND WHEN HIS WIFE WENT INSIDE HER APARTMENT AND PRODUCED HIS GREEN CARD, THEY SORT OF FUMBLED AND SAID WELL, NO, ALSO HIS GREEN CARD HAS BEEN REVOKED.

IT IS NOT REVOCABLE, ABSENT LEGAL PROCESS, AND ABSENT UNDER THE STATUTE THAT INVOKES SOME DECLARATION FROM THE SECRETARY OF STATE.

THAT WOULD JUSTIFY THE REVOCATION OF LAWFUL PERMANENT RESIDENCY UNDER THIS VERY BROAD AND VAGUE KIND OF NATIONAL SECURITY STATUTE THEY SEEM TO BE RELIANT UPON.

>> AS YOU KNOW, SECRETARY RUBIO HAS TALKED ABOUT THAT.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SAID THIS IS THE FIRST OF MANY.

AND IT IS BECAUSE OF ACTIONS, AND I AM PARAPHRASING.

THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT HE SAID ON TRUTH SOCIAL.

THAT THIS IS BECAUSE OF ACTIONS THAT KHALIL DID THAT DOES NOT COMPORT WITH OUR FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA.

HE ALSO SAID THAT IT WAS DESIGNED TO ROOT OUT ANTI- SEMITISM ON COLLEGE CAMPUSES.

CAN WE FIRST, WELL, FIRST OF ALL, WHAT ACTIVITIES DO YOU KNOW OF THAT MAHMOUD KHALIL , YOUR CLIENT, DATE IN TERMS OF SUPPORTING HAMAS, DISTRIBUTING HAMAS MATERIALS, BEING ANTI- SEMITIC?

WHAT ARE THE FACTS?

WHAT DOES HE SAY?

WHAT DO YOU SAY?

>> OKAY, WHAT THEY ARE SUGGESTING, THE CONNECTION TO HAMAS, IS JUST SORT OF THE TYPICAL SMEAR.

THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE REALITY.

IT IS A BIT OF A INTENTIONAL TRAP.

THE ACTIVITIES THEY ARE REFERRING TO OUR PEACEFUL PROTESTS, INCLUDING LEADERSHIP WITHIN THE COLUMBIA STUDENT BODY.

SUPPORTING ADVOCACY FOR PALESTINIAN HUMAN RIGHTS.

AND FOR A CRY TO END THE ONGOING GENOCIDE OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE, WHICH HE IS PART OF THE DIASPORA.

HE HAS NO CONNECTIONS TO HAMAS.

THE MOST THEY SUGGEST IS HE WAS PART OF TESTS, IN WHICH OTHER PEOPLE ISSUED FLYERS VAGUELY SUPPORTIVE OF HAMAS.

AND IF ANYONE HAS EVER BEEN IN A PROTEST, THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WHO SAY THOUSANDS OF THINGS, AND LEST WE GO DOWN THE ROAD THAT THE ADMINISTRATION SEEMS TO WANT TO, THIS McCARTHY GUEST ROAD, GUILT BY ASSOCIATION IS INCONSISTENT WITH BASIC DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES.

SO REALLY, FUNDAMENTALLY, WHAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE SECRETARY OF STATE ARE SAYING, AND THEY SHOULD BE CHILLING FOR EVERYONE, THAT SIMPLY DISSENTING FROM THE FOREIGN POLICY AIMS OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT COULD GET YOU ARRESTED AT NIGHT, DETAINED, AND ULTIMATELY DEPORTED.

AGAIN, THIS IS SORT OF McCARTHY GUEST ERA THOUGHT REPRESSION.

IS ABOUT REPRESSION, IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SECURITY.

>> OKAY, BECAUSE THEY SAY IT IS IMMIGRATION AND SECURITY, BUT ALSO THEY TALK ABOUT ANTI- SEMITISM.

WE KNOW THAT ANTI-SEMITISM IS RISING, AND WE KNOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN THE MOST AWFUL CLASHES BETWEEN BOTH SIDES IN THIS TERRIBLE WAR ON CAMPUS, FOR THE LAST MANY MONTHS, ALL OF LAST YEAR.

THE QUESTION IS, HOW DOES, IS THIS A FIRST AMENDMENT CASE, IS THE ACLU?

HOW DO YOU THINK YOU'RE GOING TO DEFEND THIS?

>> REALLY, NOT TO BE, IT IS THE GOVERNMENT'S OBLIGATION TO DEFEND THEIR ARREST.

WE FILED A HABEAS CORPUS CONDITION DEMANDING TO KNOW WHAT LEGAL AUTHORITY THEY ARE RELYING, AND AS FAR AS WE KNOW, THEY ARE INVOKING THIS STATUTE, WHICH COULD NOT BE VAGUER OR MORE UNCONSTITUTIONAL IN TERMS OF ITS VIOLATION OF FIRST AMENDMENT PRINCIPLES.

THEY HAVE TO COME UP WITH A LEGAL AND FACTUAL AUTHORITY TO MAINTAIN A LAW FOR A PERMANENT RESIDENT.

FOR SOME REASON THAT IS AUTHORIZED BY LAW, AND THE LAW DOES NOT AUTHORIZE ARREST, DETENTION, OR REMOVAL FOR CONSTITUTIONALLY PROTECTED SPEECH ACTIVITY.

AND ON A QUESTION OF ANTI- SEMITISM, MAHMOUD IS A BELOVED LEADER OF THE COHORT OF PALESTINIAN HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS IN COLUMBIA.

ANTI-SEMITISM HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH HIS DEMANDS FOR JUSTICE FOR PALESTINIAN HUMAN RIGHTS.

AND IT IS JUST YET SORT OF ANOTHER CHEAP SNEER THAT COLUMBIA KEEPS FALLING INTO, RATHER THAN PROTECTING THE RIGHTS OF THEIR STUDENTS WHO ARE ACTIVATED BY ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT MORAL ISSUES OF OUR DAY.

>> AND OF COURSE, THIS ALSO HAS DIVIDED THE JEWISH COMMUNITY, SOME OF WHOM HAVE COME TO HIS DEFENSE, OTHERS WHO HAVE DONE THE OPPOSITE.

I JUST WANTED TO ASK YOU, BECAUSE THIS ALSO IS HAVING A WIDER CHILLING EFFECT ON ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS, WITH THREATS TO PULL HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS, IF NOT MORE, OF FEDERAL FUNDING.

BUT I DO ACTUALLY WANT TO ASK YOU TO DESCRIBE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THAT VIDEO.

NONE OF US HAVE SEEN THE VIDEO OF HIM ARRESTED.

CAN YOU WALK US THROUGH IT?

>> I CAN, I MEAN, IT IS REALLY A HEART RAKING VIEW OF A FAMILY, A COUPLE WHO IS BOTH PLEADING TO BE TREATED WITH RESPECT AND DIGNITY, A WIFE DESPERATE TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THEY ARE TAKING HER HUSBAND UNDER DARK OF NIGHT, NOT GETTING ANSWERS, BEING DEMEANED AND DEGRADED HERSELF BY I.C.E.

OFFICIALS.

AND YEAH, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT I THINK THE PUBLIC RARELY SEES, A SIDE OF WHAT IT IS LIKE TO COUNTER IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS WHO, AT THAT MOMENT, ARE DETERMINED TO RUIN YOUR LIFE.

AND FOR THAT, IT IS JUST A POWERFUL HUMANISTIC VIEW OF THIS COUPLE, THEIR LOVING RELATIONSHIP, AND THEY ARE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S HAPPENING TO THEIR LIVES.

>> I KNOW YOU CAN'T PREDICT THE FUTURE, WHAT DO YOU THINK YOU HAVE A SOLID CASE, OR DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO BE MADE AN EXAMPLE OF?

IN ALL THE THINGS YOU SAY, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE, EXCEPT FOR EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES, TO REVOKE A GREEN CARD OF A LEGAL RESIDENT, ET CETERA.

DO YOU THINK, WHERE YOU THINK HE'S GOING TO END UP?

>> SO, SURELY THEY WANT TO MAKE AN EXAMPLE OUT OF HIM.

AND IF THAT IS THE PLAN, THEN WE WILL MAKE AN EXAMPLE IN COURT OF WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE TO ABUSE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S VAST IMMIGRATION AUTHORITY AND TRY AND COME DOWN ON ONE INDIVIDUAL.

AND THE BULWARK, THE COUNTERMEASURE TO ABUSIVE EXECUTIVE POWER IS THE CONSTITUTION.

AND THE CONSTITUTION AND OUR LAWS PROHIBIT HIS ARREST AND DETENTION, ESPECIALLY PROHIBITING HIS DEPORTATION.

>> AND VERY LASTLY, JUST CONFIRMED TO ME.

HAVE ANY CHARGES BEEN FILED OFFICIALLY?

AND DO YOU EXPECT ANY CHARGES TO BE OFFICIALLY FILED?

>> HE HAS HAD NO CRIMINAL CHARGES WHATSOEVER, IN HIS LIFE HERE.

HE IS A LAWFUL PERMANENT RESIDENT.

IN HIS IMMIGRATION FORM, THIS BUREAUCRATIC FORM SIGNALING WHAT CHARGES THEY HAVE, THEY HAVE INVOKED THAT PROVISION OF THE IMMIGRATION STATUTES THAT I MENTIONED.

THAT BASICALLY HIS ACTIVITY IS, NAMELY HIS CONSTITUTIONALLY PROTECTED SPEECH ACTIVITIES, THE SECRETARY OF STATE IMAGINES CONTRARY TO THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES.

AGAIN, THIS IS MEANT FOR SPIES, OR ANTI-DEMOCRATIC LEADERS WHO COME INTO THE COUNTRY, WHOSE PRESENCE HERE WOULD BE A BONA FIDE DIPLOMATIC PROBLEM.

IT CANNOT BE USED TO DEPORT INDIVIDUALS FOR SIMPLY EXPRESSING THEIR THOUGHTS AND THEIR BELIEFS.

IF IT IS, THEN WE ARE A LONG ROAD DOWN THE PATH TO AUTHORITARIANISM.

>> BAHER AZMY , THE LAWYER FOR 24, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.

>>> DIPLOMATIC OUTREACH TOWARD ANOTHER AMERICAN ADVERSARY, IRAN.

THEY STILL CAN BE NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE UNITED STATES, BUT HE SAYS THEY CAN ONLY TAKE PLACE ON, QUOTE, EQUAL TERMS.

TRUMP, WHO PULLED THE U.S. OUT OF THE NUCLEAR DEAL LAST TIME AROUND NOW SAYS HE WANTS RENEWED NEGOTIATIONS ON THAT.

BUT IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER HAS REJECTED THAT OVERTURE, SAYING, QUOTE, WHEN WE KNOW THEY WON'T HONOR IT, WHAT IS THE POINT OF NEGOTIATING?

NEW YORK TIMES CORRESPONDENT CHRONICLES DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN FOR MANY YEARS AND CONTINUES TO DO SO.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

TELL US WHERE YOUR SOURCES ARE TELLING YOU WE ARE RIGHT NOW?

BECAUSE THERE ARE MIXED MESSAGES, NOT ONLY COMING FROM THE U.S., BUT ALSO FROM IRAN.

AS WE SAID, THE SUPREME LEADER SAYS NO, AND THE U.N., WHICH YOU COVER HERE, THE U.N. MISSION SAID MAYBE.

AND THE FOREIGN MINISTER OF IRAN SAID ON THESE TERMS.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IS SHAPING UP?

>> HI, CHRISTIANE, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

I THINK THAT IRAN IS FACING A CRITICAL MOMENT RIGHT NOW.

BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND POLITICALLY.

BECAUSE THE SANCTIONS ARE STARTING TO REALLY MANIFEST IN EVERYDAY INFLATION, IN AN ENERGY CRISIS, THEY ARE SHORT IN GAS, SHORT ON WATER, SHORTAGE OF ELECTRICITY.

THE CURRENCY IS FREEFALLING EVERY DAY AGAINST THE DOLLAR, WHICH IS A MARKER OF INFLATION AND PRICE HIKES.

SO THEY REALLY, IF THEY WANT TO IMPROVE THE ECONOMY, THEY REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS.

AND I THINK THIS IS A REALITY THAT MANY POLITICIANS UNDERSTAND.

SO THE CHALLENGE FOR THEM IS HOW TO NEGOTIATE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK THAT WOULD BE ACCEPTABLE TO AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI .

I FEEL THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO PUSH BACK ON THIS IDEA THAT THE U.S. OR MR. TRUMP IS DEMANDING A WIDER NEGOTIATION THAN THE NUCLEAR ISSUE.

AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI HAS REJECTED THAT, SAYING WE WON'T CONCEDE ON OUR MILITARY PROGRAM ON MISSILES .

BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKE THEY HAVE TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO NEGOTIATE.

>> WHILE THEY ARE TRYING TO FIGURE THAT OUT, AS YOU SAID, THEY'VE NOT ONLY BEEN WEAKENED MASSIVELY ECONOMICALLY, BUT ALSO MILITARILY WITH THE STRIKES FROM ISRAEL, WITH THE PROXIES THAT HAVE ALL BUT BEEN BEHEADED AROUND THAT AREA.

THIS IS WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS, AGAIN, ABOUT HOW IT COULD BE HANDLED.

BECAUSE HE OBVIOUSLY WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL.

LET'S LISTEN.

>> THERE ARE TWO WAYS THAT IRAN CAN BE HANDLED.

MILITARILY, OR YOU MAKE A DEAL.

I WOULD PREFER TO MAKE A DEAL, BECAUSE I'M NOT LOOKING TO HURT IRAN.

SOMETHING'S GOING TO HAPPEN, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

I HOPE THAT AROUND, AND I HAVE WRITTEN THEM A LETTER, SAYING I HOPE YOU'RE GOING TO NEGOTIATE.

BECAUSE IF WE HAVE TO GO IN MILITARILY, IT'S GOING TO BE A TERRIBLE THING FOR THEM.

>> THREATS, BUT FROM THE IRANIAN PERSPECTIVE, YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE OF THE SANCTIONS.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS?

BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT, A RELATIVE MODERATE WITH A RELATIVELY MODERATE CABINET HAS BEEN PRESSING FOR THESE NEGOTIATIONS.

JUST LAST WEEK HE WAS BASICALLY THE PARLIAMENT TOOK SOME PHYSICAL MEASURES AGAINST HIS NEGOTIATING TEAM, AND HIS MINISTERS.

WHAT IS THE INTERNAL BATTLE?

>> THERE IS A VERY BIG INTERNAL BATTLE, AND BASICALLY A VERY PUBLIC DEBATE ABOUT NEGOTIATING WITH THE U.S. OR NOT NEGOTIATING.

THERE IS WIDESPREAD PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THIS.

I THINK THE MAJORITY OF IRANIANS UNDERSTAND THAT IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THEIR LIVES, THEY HAVE TO GET SOME SORT OF SANCTIONS RELIEF.

BUT THE HARDLINERS, THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY AGAINST IT.

SORT OF LIKE THE CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR THINKING TO CONSERVATIVE HERE, WHERE THEY SAY ABSOLUTELY NO NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, AND BASICALLY ABSOLUTELY NO NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE U.S., IT IS OUR ENEMY.

BUT THERE'S A MIDDLE ROAD HERE.

SUMMONING THE CABINET MEMBERS, SOME INFLUENTIAL POLITICIANS WHO SAY LOOK, WE MIGHT HAVE TO JUST SWALLOW THIS PILL AND NEGOTIATE, BECAUSE WHAT IS THE WAY OUT?

OR THE ECONOMY IS ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.

AND REMEMBER, IRAN IS ALSO FACING, THE GOVERNMENT IS FACING AN INTERNAL DISSENT.

WE SAW A MASS UPRISING BY WOMEN IN 2002.

THERE IS CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE EVERY DAY OVERHEAD JOB, OVER OTHER ISSUES.

SO THE MORE THE ECONOMY DETERIORATES, THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FACE MORE DISCONTENT.

EVEN FROM THEIR OWN CONSTITUENTS.

SO THE STATUS QUO IS NOT REALLY SUSTAINABLE FOR THEM.

AND TO YOUR POINT ABOUT INTERNAL DISSENT, WE'VE SEEN THE PRESIDENT COME OUT IN PARLIAMENT AND TRY TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI.

HE SAID LOOK, I CAMPAIGNED ON THE CONDITIONS, I BELIEVE IN NEGOTIATIONS IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THE ECONOMY, BUT AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI HAS TOLD ME YOU CANNOT NEGOTIATE.

SO THAT IS THAT.

THAT'S WHAT I'M GOING TO DO.

AND IT WAS QUITE A REMARKABLE PUBLIC ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF THE LIMITS OF THE POWER THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS IN IRAN.

AND ADMISSION THAT REALLY THE KEY POLICIES ARE DETERMINED BY THE SUPREME LEADER.

>> LET ME ASK YOU SOME ATMOSPHERICS.

BECAUSE EVEN IN CHINA AND ELSEWHERE, PEOPLE ARE REACTING TO WHAT HAPPENED IN THE OVAL OFFICE BETWEEN TRUMP AND ZELENSKYY .

THAT WAS AMERICA AND AN ALLY HAVING VERBAL FISTICUFFS IN PUBLIC.

AND AS WE KNOW, AND CAUSE A LOT OF REVERBERATIONS IN TEHRAN.

LOOKING TO POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS.

THIS IS WHAT HE SAID ABOUT IT.

>> WHAT THEY DID TO ZELENSKYY IS REALLY SHAMEFUL.

TO CONFRONT SOMEONE IN SUCH A WAY.

IT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE TO SAY TO SOMEONE THAT WE ORDER YOU NOT TO DO THIS AND THAT.

OR ELSE WE WILL DO THIS AND THAT TO YOU.

I WOULD NOT EVEN COME TO TALK TO YOU.

GO DO WHATEVER YOU WANT TO DO.

>> SO DO YOU THINK THAT THAT IS A PUBLIC SHOW OF SUPPORT FOR ZELENSKYY ?

OF COURSE, RUSSIA IS, IN FACT, BEING HELD BY IRAN.

OR, IS IT A REAL FEAR ABOUT NEGOTIATING WITH WHAT THEY BELIEVE TO BE A FICKLE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT?

>> I THINK IT IS THE LATTER.

I THINK IRAN IS VERY CLOSE TO RUSSIA.

THEY HAVE PROVIDED RUSSIA WITH DRONES THAT HE USES TO ATTACK UKRAINE, AND THEY ARE VERY CLOSE TO RUSSIA'S PRESIDENT.

BUT I THINK THE SCENES IN THE OVAL OFFICE AND SORT OF THE CONFRONTATION BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND VICE PRESIDENT VANCE, AND MR. ZELENSKYY REALLY REVERBERATED IN IRAN, IN A WAY THAT THEY THOUGHT THIS IS HOW THIS ADMINISTRATION IS TREATING ITS ALLY, HOW ARE THEY GOING TO TREAT US?

AND IMMEDIATELY THEY PUT BANNERS, SO THEY ARE TRYING TO ALSO KIND OF SAY THAT THIS VALIDATES OUR POSITION THAT YOU CANNOT TRUST THE U.S., THAT WE HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALL ALONG.

BANNERS WENT UP, BIG BANNERS ALONG HIGHWAYS IN IRAN THAT SHOWED THAT SCENE WITH MR. TRUMP AND MR. ZELENSKYY SAYING LESSONS FROM ZELENSKYY.

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU RELY ON THE U.S. >> VERY QUICKLY, WE GOT 20 SECONDS.

DOES IRAN BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDER REAL THREAT NOW, THE REGIME, AFTER WHAT ISRAEL DID THEIR MILITARY STANDING, AND AFTER ALL THESE SANCTIONS?

>> YES.

I THINK THAT THE CONCERN IS VERY REAL.

THEY HAVE SEEN SORT OF ISRAEL'S MILITARY MARK.

THEY SEEM THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO GO AFTER SOME OF THEIR TOP ALLIES, LIKE HEZBOLLAH'S LEADER , AND ELIMINATE HIM.

AND ISRAEL HAS SAID VERY PUBLICLY THAT IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES COULD BE A TARGET, AND PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS ALSO SAID THAT.

SO I THINK THOSE CONCERNS ARE VERY REAL.

IN IRAN, REALLY, IF THERE IS A DEADLOCK OVER THE NUCLEAR ISSUE AND IRAN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE, AS IT HAS BEEN, WITH ITS STOCKPILE OF URANIUM, THEN THE THREAT OF MILITARY STRIKE ISRAEL.

AND WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNPREDICTABLE.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH, INDEED, FOR THAT REALLY UNPARALLELED INSIGHT.

>>> RETURNING NOW TO A TRADE WAR THAT SEEMS TO BE SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL, THE GLOVES ARE OFF BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CANADA.

AND CANADA'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER HAS PROMISED TO STAND UP TO TRUMP.

IS THERE ANY WAY OUT OF THIS CYCLE OF ECONOMIC VIOLENCE?

CHIEF ECONOMIST OF THE ROYAL BANK OF CANADA GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, HE IS JOINING WALTER ISAACSON TO LOOK AT WHAT THIS ALL MEANS.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE, AND ERIC, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU, IT IS A PLEASURE TO BE HERE.

>> THERE HAVE BEEN TERMS SLAPPED ON THE UNITED STATES BY CANADA IN RETALIATION FOR TRUMP'S TARIFFS ON CANADA.

NOW THE CENTRAL BANK OF CANADA YESTERDAY LOWERED INTEREST RATES BY A QUARTER OF A POINT.

I WANT TO REVIEW SOMETHING THAT THE GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK SAID.

HE SAID WE ARE FACING A NEW CRISIS, AND HE SAID THE TARIFFS ON CANADA COULD BE SEVERE.

TELL ME THE STATE OF PLAY AND WHAT YOU THINK IT MIGHT DO TO THE CANADIAN ECONOMY.

>> TARIFFS ARE AN ENORMOUS PROBLEM FOR THE CANADIAN ECONOMY.

THIS LONG FRIENDSHIP AND PARTNERSHIP IN NORTH AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP HAS REALLY INTEGRATED THESE ECONOMIES.

AND AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, ABOUT 20% OF EVERYTHING THAT CANADA MAKES IS ULTIMATELY DIRECTLY CONSUMED BY AMERICANS.

SO YOU CAN IMAGINE, AS THESE TARIFFS ARE PUT ON, AND BEGIN TO IMPEDE THOSE FLOWS, IT REALLY IS QUITE A CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE CANADIAN ECONOMY.

IT IS CERTAINLY NOT PLAYED FOR THE U.S.

EITHER, BUT IT IS PROFOUNDLY WORSE FOR CANADA.

SO IT IS HARD TO SAY WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHAT THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE WILL BE IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE, JUST BECAUSE THERE ARE SO MANY SWIRLING TARIFFS AND ON-AGAIN OFF-AGAIN TYPE OF ARRANGEMENTS.

BUT IF SIGNIFICANT TARIFFS ARE APPLIED AND THEY STICK, IT IS NOT AN EXAGGERATION AT ALL TO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY PROFOUND RECESSION FOR CANADA.

SO HERE WE NOW SEE POLICYMAKERS RESPONDING TO THAT, AND THE BANK OF CANADA HAS CUT INTEREST RATES.

IT MIGHT'VE DONE THAT ANYHOW, BUT CERTAINLY IT IS ON A PATH TOWARDS ADDITIONAL RATE CUTS RELATIVE TO WHAT MIGHT'VE OTHERWISE BEEN APPROPRIATE.

AND I WOULD CERTAINLY THINK THAT AS WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL CLARITY ON JUST WHAT TARIFFS ARE IN PLACE, HOW LONG THEY STICK AROUND, I WOULD THINK THE FISCAL POLICY WILL COME INTO PLAY, AS WELL.

>> WE'VE SEEN THIS GO BACK AND FORTH ALL THE TIME.

DO YOU THINK CANADA WILL END UP SORT OF ACCOMMODATING WHATEVER TRUMP WANTS, OR DO YOU THINK IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CANADA COULD FIGHT, AND CONTINUE THE TRADE WAR?

>> WE'VE CERTAINLY SEEN CANADA, I WOULD SAY MAYBE THE MORE PROACTIVE OF THE TWO MAIN NORTH AMERICAN PARTNERS IN THE SENSE THAT MEXICO HAS BEEN NOTABLY RATHER QUIET.

CANADA, A BIT MORE PUGNACIOUS IN THE VIEW THAT IT IS NECESSARY TO RECIPROCATE AND HUNCHBACK TO SOME EXTENT, AND RECOGNIZING THAT PRESUMABLY A LARGE FRACTION OF THIS WILL COME DOWN TO NEGOTIATIONS.

SO THERE MAY BE SOME ADVANTAGE TO HAVING TARIFFS TO LIFT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOARD, IF THOSE COULD BE LIFTED.

IT IS CLEAR THAT THE WHITE HOUSE SEEKS ANY NUMBER OF CONCESSIONS FROM ANY OF ITS TRADING PARTNERS, AND I THINK SOME OF THOSE ARE PERHAPS NOT ENTIRELY UNREASONABLE, AND IN PARTICULAR, THE THOUGHT THAT MILITARY SPENDING MIGHT INCREASE.

CANADA HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT ON THE FUND FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

WE'VE SEEN ALREADY ADDITIONAL RESOURCES DIRECTED TOWARDS BORDER SECURITY, EVEN THOUGH I WOULD ARGUE THAT IT IS MUCH MORE OF A MEXICAN ISSUE THAN A CANADIAN ONE, BUT CANADA HAS PUT SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS IN THAT DIRECTION.

AND I THINK IT'S A REALITY NOW THAT THIS U.S.

IN A TRADE DEAL WILL BE RENEGOTIATED, AS WELL.

CANADA LIKELY IN A POSITION TO OBLIGE FOR THAT.

I THINK MAYBE THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT EXIST, AND THIS IS RELEVANT TO ALL OF THE AMERICAN TRADING PARTNERS, THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE THOUGHT OF RECIPROCAL TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE GROWN BEYOND THE IDEA OF IF YOU HAVE TARIFFS, WE WILL HAVE TARIFFS ON YOU.

SO IT SEEMS NOW TO EXPRESS SOME MEASURE OF OBJECTION TO FOREIGN COUNTRIES, ANCHORING CANADA, THAT HAVE SALES TAXES.

THE HAVE EXCHANGE RATES THAT PERHAPS ARE NOT PRECISELY AT THEIR LONG-TERM FAIR VALUE.

AND THAT HAVE SECTORS THAT PERHAPS HAVE SOME MEASURE OF PROTECTIONISM, BE IT TRANSPORTATION, BROADCASTING, AND OTHERS.

WHICH THE U.S. HAS, AS WELL, SO I SAY ALL THAT JUST TO MAKE THE POINT THAT I THINK SOME OF THE U.S. ASKS ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO OBLIGE TO.

SO AS A RESULT, THERE IS A REAL CHANCE THAT THESE TARIFFS OR AT LEAST SOME FRACTION OF THEM STICK AROUND.

BECAUSE I'M NOT SURE THAT NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE ENTIRELY FRUITFUL.

>> ONE UNDERLYING THING IS THAT CANADA HAS A PRETTY LARGE TRADE SURPLUS.

WITH THE UNITED STATES.

DO YOU THINK THAT IS THE REASON TRUMP IS TRYING TO NEGOTIATE THIS?

OR DO YOU THINK HE BELIEVES TARIFFS ARE KIND OF A GOOD IN, AND WE SHOULD START MAKING ALUMINUM AND STEEL AND OTHER THINGS IN THE UNITED STATES, AND DECOUPLE A BIT FROM THE CANADIAN ECONOMY?

>> I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF SWIRLING MOTIVATIONS.

I WOULD BE SKEPTICAL THAT IT REALLY IS ABOUT CANADIAN BORDER SECURITIES, FIRST OF ALL, SO I THINK THAT IS A BIT OF A RED HERRING.

IT DOES SEEM TO ME THAT THE WHITE HOUSE HAS SOME PROTECTIONIST INSTINCTS, AND THE IDEA THAT IT WOULD BE BETTER FOR THE U.S. TO BE SELF- SUFFICIENT.

AND I SHOULD SAY, THERE ARE ECONOMIC LOSSES WHEN ONE TRIES TO DO THAT.

FOR A COUNTRY WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE THAT IS ALREADY FAIRLY LOW, IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INDUSTRIES TO COME IN.

AND THERE ALWAYS IS A LOSS OF SELECTION AND VARIETY, AND QUALITY AND SO ON, WHEN COUNTRIES TRY TO GO THIS ALONE.

BUT I THINK THERE IS AN ATTITUDE SHIFT THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE, YOU ARE RIGHT THAT CANADA DOES HAVE A TRADE SURPLUS WITH U.S.

I WOULD NOTE THAT IT IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE, IT HAS SOMETIMES BEEN ARTICULATED, AND SOMEWHERE IN THE REALM OF ABOUT A $62 BILLION ANNUAL SURPLUS.

A LOT OF THAT GOES AWAY IF YOU INCLUDE THE SERVICE SECTOR, WHICH THE U.S. IS EXPORTING ALL SORTS OF CULTURAL SERVICES, ENTERTAINMENT, AND MANY OTHER PRODUCTS AS WELL.

IT HAS BEEN WIDELY NOTED IF YOU WERE TO REMOVE THE 4 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF OIL THAT CANADA EXPORTS TO THE U.S., WHICH IS DONE IN QUITE A DISCOUNT AND IS GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO BE A POSITIVE THING, THAT SURPLUS SHIFTS TO A DEFICIT.

SO YEAH, THERE IS A SURPLUS.

I THINK THAT'S PART OF IT.

BUT I THINK YOU WOULD STRUGGLE TO ARTICULATE WHY CANADA IS BEING SO FOCUSED IN TERMS OF THE TERRORIST ATTACK SO FAR.

SIMPLY BECAUSE THEIR COUNTRIES WITH FAR GREATER TRADE SURPLUSES WITH THE U.S., AND I AM THINKING MEXICO AND TAIWAN, VIETNAM AND GERMANY, AND OTHERS.

AND YET THEY AT LEAST, SO FAR, HAVE NOT BEEN HAD THE SAME EXTENT.

I DO THINK THERE IS SOME MEASURE OF ANIMOSITY, THAT FOR WHATEVER REASON EXISTS, AS WELL.

>> WAIT, LET ME PIN THAT DOWN.

ANIMOSITY MEETING PERSONAL BY TRUMP, TOWARDS MAYBE PERSONALLY TOWARDS TRUDEAU.

IS THIS AN EMOTIONAL THING?

>> I THINK POSSIBLY.

I WOULD STRUGGLE TO ARTICULATE THE REASONS ENTIRELY BEHIND IT, BUT YES, IT DID SEEM AS THOUGH THAT PARTICULAR RELATIONSHIP WAS NOT ENTIRELY CONSTRUCTIVE.

OF COURSE, AS YOU KNOW, CANADA IS GOING THROUGH POLITICAL CHANGE NOW THAT COULD PERHAPS LESSEN SOME OF THAT IMPACT, BUT THAT IS QUITE SPECULATIVE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT CHANGE.

MARK CARNEY IS THE NEW LEADER OF THE LIBERAL PARTY.

HE IS ABOUT AS STABLE, AS KNOWLEDGEABLE, AS DOWN TO EARTH, AND AS CALM AS YOU COULD FIND ANYBODY.

DO YOU THINK, IF HE EVENTUALLY IS ELECTED IN THIS NEW ELECTION THAT WILL COME IN A FEW MONTHS OR SO, THAT HE IS THE RIGHT PERSON FOR THIS TIME?

>> CERTAINLY HAS THE POLICY CHOPS, AND THE ECONOMIC CHOPS.

SO YOU COULD ARGUE HE IS THE RIGHT PERSON FOR THE TIME IN THE SENSE THAT THIS IS, FOR CANADA, A TIME OF REALLY HAVING TO PRIORITIZE THE ECONOMY AND FIND A WAY FORWARD FROM A TRAIT PERSPECTIVE AND SORT OUT JUST WHAT THE RIGHT LEVEL OF SUPPORT IS FOR AN ECONOMY THAT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED.

I MIGHT BROUGHT IT OUT A LITTLE BIT, MAYBE COPOUT A LITTLE BIT, AS WELL, AND SAY HE IS THE PRIME MINISTER, AT LEAST SHORTLY WILL BE.

THERE IS AN ELECTION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE HELD AT SOME POINT IN 2025, FOR CANADA.

LET THE RECORD SHOW UNTIL QUITE RECENTLY IT WAS THE OPPOSITION CONSERVATIVE PARTY WITH A VERY LARGE LEAD IN THE POLLS.

THAT HAS NARROWED QUITE A BIT, I SUSPECT, IN PART IS THERE IS BEEN A REAL SENSE OF PATRIOTISM AND NATIONALISM EXPRESSED IN CANADA.

GIVEN RECENT THREATS TOWARDS THE COUNTRY.

THAT HAS FAVORED THE INCUMBENT LIBERALS, SO NOW IT IS A REALLY CLOSE RACE.

I WOULD NOT WANT TO PREJUDGE EXACTLY WHO IS THE PREMISE ARE COMING OUT OF THIS, BUT I WOULD SAY THAT BETWEEN PERHAPS CARNEY BEING SOMEWHAT MORE OF AN ECONOMICS INTEREST VERSUS A MORE LEFT-LEANING CENTER POLICIES THAT PREDATED EVEN UNDER THE SAME LIBERAL PARTY, OR CONSERVATIVE WIN, WHICH IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND ALSO ENVISIONS SOME SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC CHANGES.

I THINK EITHER WAY IT IS PROBABLY ONE THE PUTS CANADA IN A BETTER POSITION FOR GROWTH AND FOR PRODUCTIVITY GAINS, AND SO ON.

AND PERHAPS IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER POSITION IN TERMS OF NEGOTIATING WITH THE U.S., BUT THERE MAY, AS YOU SAY, BE SOME PERSONAL ANIMOSITY AT STAKE RIGHT NOW.

>> LET ME READ YOU SOMETHING THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA, WHICH IS ABOUT CANADA.

WE DON'T NEED YOUR CARS.

WE DON'T NEED YOUR LUMBER.

WE DON'T NEED YOUR ENERGY.

AND VERY SOON YOU WILL FIND THAT OUT.

IS HE RIGHT?

>> WELL, GOSH, IT PROBABLY DEPENDS ON TIME FRAME.

I THINK WE CAN FAST FORWARD 10 YEARS OR EVEN A FEW YEARS, I DON'T DOUBT THAT THE U.S. COULD FIND OTHER FOREIGN PROVIDERS FOR SOME OF THOSE PRODUCTS.

AND COULD BE IN A POSITION TO INCREASE ITS PRODUCTION OF SOME OF THOSE PRODUCTS DOMESTICALLY, AS WELL.

AT A COST, I SHOULD SAY, BECAUSE IT WOULD REQUIRE THAT THE PRIORITIZING OF OTHER THINGS THE U.S. HAS ALREADY BEEN VERY GOOD AT, AND OF COURSE, THAT IS ONE OF THE CENTRAL CHARMS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE, YOU LET COUNTRIES SPECIALIZE THAT EVERYONE IS BETTER OFF AS A RESULT.

OF COURSE, EVERY DOLLAR OF TRADE THAT IS EXCHANGED IS ENTIRELY VOLUNTARY, SO THEREFORE TO THE BENEFIT OF ALL PARTIES.

BUT I DO THINK IN THE SHORT RUN THAT PROBABLY IS NOT CORRECT.

IN THE SENSE THAT IT WOULD BE VERY HARD FOR THE U.S. TO SUBSTITUTE A WAY FOR MANY OF THE THINGS THAT CANADA MAKES.

MAYBE IT IS STYLIZED, BUT CANADA PROVIDES LOT OF RAW MATERIALS TO THE U.S.

WHEN I THINK ABOUT THE OIL SECTOR, AS AN EXAMPLE, 4 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL A DAY ARE PROVIDED TO THE U.S.

THE U.S. CONSUMES ABOUT 18 MILLION.

THIS IS MORE THAN 20% OF THE OIL SUPPLY.

THAT IS NOT LIKELY AMERICANS ARE GOING TO DRIVE A WALLACE.

IT'S NOT LIKELY YOU CAN SUDDENLY GET OIL FROM ANOTHER PLACE IN THAT MAGNITUDE.

IT'S NOT LIKELY AMERICAN REFINERS COULD REFINE ANY OTHER OIL IF THEY WERE ABLE TO FIND IT.

THAT OIL REFINERY IS VERY SPECIFICALLY FOCUSED ON CANADIAN HEAVY OIL.

FOR POTASH, CANADA PROVIDES THE GREAT BULK OF THE IMPORTED POTASH, WHILE RUSSIA AND BELARUS PRODUCE SOME, AND ONE MIGHT THEORETICALLY THINK OF A WAY IN WHICH THAT COULD BE SECURED.

THEY JUST DON'T MAKE ENOUGH FOR U.S.

NEEDS, EVEN IF YOU ARE ABLE TO SWAP ALL OF THE PRODUCTION OVER TO THE U.S. AND THE AUTO SECTOR, THIS IS A HIGHLY INTEGRATED NORTH AMERICAN AUTO SECTOR, SO OF COURSE, THERE IS PRESSURE NOW FOR COMPANIES TO SHIFT SOME MEASURE OF PRODUCTION TOWARDS THE U.S., BUT YOU CAN'T BUILD FACTORIES IN A DAY.

YOU CAN'T EVEN BUILD THE MANY YEAR.

PRETTY SIMILARLY, APROPOS, GIVEN THAT THE STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFFS HAVE COME ON, CANADA PRODUCES THE GREAT BULK OF THE ALUMINUM USED IN THE U.S. WE ARE TALKING 10 TIMES MORE THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY PROVIDES TO THE U.S., FAR MORE THAN THE U.S.

PRODUCES.

AND ALUMINUM IS YOU NEEDED FOR MOTOR VEHICLES, INCLUDING PICKUP TRUCKS.

IT IS NEEDED FOR PLANES, NEEDED FOR CONSTRUCTION, IT IS NEEDED FOR EVERY SODA CAN THAT YOU SEE.

AND THERE REALLY IS NOT ANOTHER WAY TO GET THAT AND ANY KIND OF TIMELY WAY.

SO THE PAIN IS GREATER FOR CANADA, BUT THE PAIN IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THE U.S. AND YOU WOULD EXPECT HIGHER INFLATION, AND YOU WOULD EXPECT PALPABLY WEAKER ECONOMIC GROWTH, AS WELL.

>> THAT IS WHAT YOU DO AT THE ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, RBC, YOU ARE VERY GOOD AT MAKING PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMY, DOING ANALYSIS.

LET'S START WITH THE UNITED STATES.

DO YOU THINK A RECESSION IS IN THE WORKS IN THE UNITED STATES?

>> I AM DOUBTFUL ABOUT THAT.

I CAN CERTAINLY SAY WE'VE SEEN EVIDENCE OF AN ECONOMIC DECELERATION.

I COULD SAY THE TARIFFS, IF APPLIED IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY, AND THERE IS SUCH RADICAL UNCERTAINTY AROUND THAT, YOU NEED TO THINK IN A SCENARIO CONTEXT, BUT THERE ARE CERTAINLY WAYS IN WHICH THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE EMERGING FROM THAT.

I STILL STRUGGLE TO CONCLUDE THAT THAT IS A RECESSIONARY BLOW.

IT IS ONE THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIM GROWTH.

IT IS ONE THAT INCREASINGLY POINTS TO AN ECONOMY THAT MIGHT GROW AT ITS LOWEST RATE SINCE 2020, SINCE THE PANDEMIC, TO THE EXTENT THESE TARIFFS COME ON .

TO ME IT IS NOT A FULL ON RECESSIONARY BLOW.

AND I WOULD SAY, AS MUCH AS MARKETS ARE RECOILING, THE SORT OF SCALE OF MARKET RECOIL IS PROBABLY CONSISTENT WITH THAT, AS WELL.

HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT?

ABSOLUTELY.

WEAKER GROWTH?

ABSOLUTELY.

TO MY EYE, NOT AN OUTRIGHT ECONOMIC CONTRACTION.

>> LET ME ASK ABOUT CANADA.

DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE RECESSIONARY FOR CANADA?

>> LISTEN, IF ANYTHING LIKE A 25% TARIFF COMES ON ON APRIL 2nd, I THINK THE ANSWER IS YES.

I WOULD ASSUME THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK ALL MUST IMMEDIATELY AT THAT POINT.

I WOULD LIKE TO THINK THERE WILL BE NEGOTIATIONS.

I WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT SMALLER TARIFFS WILL ULTIMATELY PREVAIL.

WITHIN A MATTER OF MONTHS, OR PERHAPS QUARTERS.

EITHER WAY, YOU WOULD STILL HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT WAS SHRINKING, INITIALLY, AND QUITE A BIT OF PAIN FELT.

MAYBE THE ONLY DISTINCTION I CAN MAKE BETWEEN THE TWO, AND IS NOT REALLY AN ECONOMIC ONE, THE CANADIANS ARE INCREDIBLY UNITED AROUND THIS.

AND WILLING TO SUFFER AND BROADLY IN LINE WITH THE RECIPROCAL TERRACE BEING APPLIED TO THE U.S..

SO I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE CANADIANS RALLY, AND PERHAPS THAT WILL DAMPEN SOME OF BLOW.

BUT AT A MINIMUM, THE GOVERNMENT AND THE CENTRAL BANK LIKELY TO BE ROLLING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

>> EXPLAIN TO ME SOMETHING ABOUT THE WAY CANADA WORKS.

WE SEE DOUG FORD, ONTARIO'S PREMIER, TALKING ABOUT PUTTING HIS OWN TARIFFS ON THE UNITED STATES AND COMING TO MEET WITH HOWARD LENNOX, THE TREASURY SECRETARY.

DID HE DO THINGS, WHAT YOU EXPECT OF THAT MEETING WITH LATINX, AND COULD HE DO THINGS THAT ARE NOT DONATED WITH THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OF CANADA?

>> IS CERTAINLY UNCONVENTIONAL.

I WILL SAY THAT HE HAS BEEN AMONG THE MORE PUGNACIOUS OF THE PROVINCIAL LEADERS, SO THAT IS BEEN UNDENIABLE.

I GUESS TIME WILL TELL WHETHER THAT IS THE RIGHT STRATEGY OR NOT.

IT'S NOT QUITE THERE YET.

PERHAPS NOT THE WORST THING TO BE EXPERIMENTING WITH DIFFERENT RESPONSES, AND ENGAGING WITH THE U.S.

RESPONSE TO THAT IS.

YOU CAN ARGUE, PERHAPS THERE IS BEEN SOME VALUE IN THAT, JUST TO THE EXTENT THAT, AS YOU SAY, THERE IS NO MEETING SCHEDULED.

I WOULD NOTE, PRIOR MEETINGS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY FRUITFUL, SO I WILL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT IN TERMS OF WHETHER THERE IS ACTUAL FORWARD PROGRESS THAT OCCURS.

BUT I WILL SAY THAT IS MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRATEGIES OUT OF DIFFERENT PROVINCES, AND IT IS UNCONVENTIONAL FOR A SUB- SOVEREIGN LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT TO BE APPLYING TARIFFS, ULTIMATELY CANADA IS ROWING IN THE SAME DIRECTION, AND THESE PREMIERES AND THE PRIME MINISTER AND OTHERS ARE MEETING REGULARLY AND ARE ON THE SAME PAGE, SO I WOULD NOT SAY THAT IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNING RIGHT NOW.

BUT REALLY, IT DOES REFLECT THE FACT THAT IF STAGE ONE OF THE CANADIAN RETALIATION IS TARIFFS AND A CONVENTIONAL WAY, THERE ARE OTHER OPTIONS THAT EXIST, WHETHER IT BE TARIFFS ON NONTRADITIONAL ITEMS LIKE ELECTRICITY, OR LIMITING THE EXPORT OF CERTAIN RADICAL PRODUCTS.

I'M HOPING THAT BRIDGE DOES NOT GET CROSSED, BUT THAT OPTION DOES EXIST, AND OF COURSE, IT IS SO CRITICAL TO CANADA TO GET BACK TO SOME SORT OF PROPER TRADE FOOTING WITH THE U.S. >> YOU MADE A VERY STRONG POINT ABOUT HOW COUPLED THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IS TO THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, AND VICE VERSA.

THE U.S. ECONOMY.

DO YOU THINK THAT THIS SORT OF UNCERTAINTY IS GOING TO LEAD TO A LONG-TERM DECOUPLING OF THE TWO ECONOMIES?

>> IT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

AND IT IS AWFULLY HARD TO SAY, BECAUSE OF COURSE, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT TRADE POLICY MIGHT LOOK LIKE UNDER A DIFFERENT ADMINISTRATION FOUR YEARS FROM NOW, OR WHAT IT MIGHT LOOK LIKE A DECADE OR TWO FROM NOW.

AND I WOULD NOT WANT TO UNDERESTIMATE, THE LONG, INCREDIBLE, AND ALMOST UNPARALLELED FRINGE OF THE TWO COUNTRIES HAVE HAD.

I WOULD NOT WANT TO WRITE THAT OFF ON THE BASIS OF A COUPLE OF BAD MONTHS.

BUT I WOULD SAY THAT CERTAINLY CANADA IS OF THE MIND THAT IT NEEDS TO WORK HARDER TO DIVERSIFY ITS TRADE.

IT HAS BEEN SUCH A POSITIVE PARTNERSHIP THAT CANADA DOES NOT TRADE THAT MUCH WITH EUROPE OR CHINA, OR SOME OF THE OTHER OBVIOUS MARKETS.

SO THERE IS QUITE A SCRAMBLE UNDERWAY.

I AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THE ABILITY OF CANADA TO SIGNIFICANTLY PIVOT IN SHORT ORDER, JUST BECAUSE, AGAIN, THESE OTHER PLACES ARE FAR AWAY.

THEY ARE ALREADY PROVIDED WITH PERHAPS THE POTASH THAT THEY NEED OR THE OIL THAT THEY NEED, AND SO ON.

IT HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO TRANSMIT SOME OF THESE PRODUCTS TO FOREIGN SHORES.

SO I THINK WE WILL SEE A SCRAMBLE TO REDUCE RELIANCE ON THE U.S.

IT IS BEEN A REAL WAKE- UP CALL, I THINK, FOR CANADA.

AND WHEN I SUSPECT WILL NOT BE FORGOTTEN ANYTIME SOON.

ALL THE SAME, EVEN WITH GARGANTUAN TARIFFS, I VERY STRONGLY SUSPECT CANADA'S BIGGEST TRADING PARTNER WILL BE THE U.S., AND I WOULD THINK IT WILL BE PROBABLY AGAIN A FAIRLY CLOSE TRADING RELATIONSHIP.

WITHIN A NUMBER OF YEARS.

>> YOU SAY THERE WILL BE A SCRAMBLE TO REDUCE RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE UNITED STATES, TRADE RELATIONS.

DO YOU THINK THAT WOULD PUT CANADA MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH CHINA?

>> IT IS A GREAT QUESTION, AND I THINK THE NATURAL STRATEGY IS TO FLIRT WITH OTHER COUNTRIES, PERHAPS INDUCED SOME JEALOUSY FROM THE U.S. AND THE OBVIOUS WORDING WOULD BE WITH CHINA, AND EUROPE IN PARTICULAR.

SO I'M SURE THOSE CONVERSATIONS WILL HAPPEN.

DO NOTE THAT CANADA ALREADY HAS A FREE-TRADE DEAL WITH EUROPE, SO I SUPPOSE THE OPPORTUNITY THERE IS TO TRADE MORE, THE NEGATIVE IS THAT THERE IS NOT ROOM FOR AN EXPLOSION OF TRADE BECAUSE THE BARRIERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FAIRLY LOW.

ONE OF THE CHALLENGES FOR CANADA IS THAT CANADA AND CHINA HAVE OFTEN HAD A CONTENTIOUS RELATIONSHIP.

IRONICALLY, IN PART BECAUSE OF THE U.S.

SO, FOR INSTANCE, CANADA PUT ON A LARGE TARIFF ON CHINESE VEHICLES TO SYNCHRONIZE WITH THE U.S.

TARIFF ON CHINESE VEHICLES.

CHINA HAS JUST PUNCHED BACK IN CANADA IN THE LAST WEEK AND IS NOW APPLYING TARIFFS TO VARIOUS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS ON CANADA.

SO I WOULD NOT SAY THE RELATIONSHIP IS ENTIRELY PROCEEDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION RIGHT NOW, SO THERE ARE CHALLENGES THERE.

BUT I'M SURE CANADA WILL DO ITS BEST TO DIVERSIFY AGAIN.

>> ERIC LaSALLE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> THAT'S IT FOR US NOW.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING.

GOODBYE FROM NEW YORK.